The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market may find price recovery in 2023 after months of declining monthly contract prices, even as inflation and rising interest rates pressure home construction. PVC contract prices have fallen from 96.5¢/lb, at least a six-year high, to 70.5¢/lb over the last six months after the PVC market faced a souring housing market, weak global demand, and a significant oversupply in material. Despite the negative factors at play in the market currently, industry participants see several reasons why prices could swing upwards in the coming year. The most central factor contributing to the current price drops is poor domestic demand. Aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tamp down inflation near four-decade highs earlier this year have more than doubled 30-year mortgage rates in the past year, dampening housing demand and undermining builder confidence and new home construction. But recent data has begun to show inflation finally beginning to cool. Reacting to this, the Fed on 14 December hiked its target lending rate by 50 basis points after four consecutive 75 basis point increases and signaled it was on track to end its hikes next year as it forecast the economy nearly stalling in 2023. As a result of the higher lending rates, home prices have fallen for several months in a row from highs at the beginning of the year and many buyers expect further declines in the near term. Additionally, declines in PVC demand have been at least partially fueled by buyers holding out for better prices, which are beginning to become attractive again even as most buyers are still cautious. Some PVC producers have viewed